Friday, September 16, 2005
Polls are not Truth
I've been thinking about (and depressed by) polls showing that some large portion of Americans are receptive to creationism. When I see these polls, I feel like they come with the implied suggestion that we should accede to the desires of the creationists and teach creationism in schools. This may well be my defensiveness rather than their intent, although I can't see much purpose in asking the question other than to gauge support for such a thing.
See, polls are really only good for showing what people think. The only cases where public-opinion polls should determine results is in the few areas where it matters what the general public thinks. In practical terms, this is elections and ballot initiatives, where there's a constitutional or statutory mandatory response to polls.
With the case of science education, the general public is clueless, so the polls don't demonstrate anything other than that cluelessness. Suppose you had cancer. Would you rather have a local TV station take a poll as to what treatment you should undergo, or ask a doctor? Obviously, you'd ask a doctor. Now, you might want to know what the consensus among informed people (i.e., doctors) was, in which case a poll of that group would be useful.
Now, suppose you want to teach kids about science (creationists don't actually want to do this, but I bet polls would show - hah - that the general public wants their children to know about science). Would you take a poll of the general public to determine what valid science is, or would you, say, ask scientists? And if you ask scientists, you hear with resounding unanimity that biological evolution is real, and that Earth history makes no sense without it.
You can't take a poll to find out what is true. You can only take a poll to find out what people think is true. So, quit taking the polls. Or act on the real problem they reveal, which is that the average American is ignorant about science. We need more, not less, evolution in classes, even if people don't "believe" in it. Especially because they don't.
See, polls are really only good for showing what people think. The only cases where public-opinion polls should determine results is in the few areas where it matters what the general public thinks. In practical terms, this is elections and ballot initiatives, where there's a constitutional or statutory mandatory response to polls.
With the case of science education, the general public is clueless, so the polls don't demonstrate anything other than that cluelessness. Suppose you had cancer. Would you rather have a local TV station take a poll as to what treatment you should undergo, or ask a doctor? Obviously, you'd ask a doctor. Now, you might want to know what the consensus among informed people (i.e., doctors) was, in which case a poll of that group would be useful.
Now, suppose you want to teach kids about science (creationists don't actually want to do this, but I bet polls would show - hah - that the general public wants their children to know about science). Would you take a poll of the general public to determine what valid science is, or would you, say, ask scientists? And if you ask scientists, you hear with resounding unanimity that biological evolution is real, and that Earth history makes no sense without it.
You can't take a poll to find out what is true. You can only take a poll to find out what people think is true. So, quit taking the polls. Or act on the real problem they reveal, which is that the average American is ignorant about science. We need more, not less, evolution in classes, even if people don't "believe" in it. Especially because they don't.
